By Michael J P Cullen

This e-book counteracts the present type for theories of "chaos" and unpredictability by way of describing a idea that underpins the stunning accuracy of present deterministic climate forecasts, and it means that additional advancements are attainable. The booklet does this by way of creating a specified hyperlink among an exhilarating new department of arithmetic known as "optimal transportation" and latest classical theories of the large-scale surroundings and ocean stream. it truly is then attainable to resolve a suite of straightforward equations proposed a long time in the past by means of Hoskins that are asymptotically legitimate on huge scales, and use them to derive quantitative predictions approximately many large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. a selected characteristic is that the easy equations used have hugely predictable suggestions, therefore suggesting that the boundaries of deterministic predictability of the elements would possibly not but were reached. it's also attainable to make rigorous statements in regards to the large-scale behaviour of the ambience and ocean by means of proving effects utilizing those basic equations and using them to the true method bearing in mind the blunders within the approximation. there are various different titles during this box, yet they don't deal with this large-scale regime.

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**Example text**

17) are not approximated. In the absence of dissipation and source terms, and with the boundary conditions u - n = 0 on the boundary of T, the semi-geostrophic equations can be shown to conserve the energy integral E = 3 -Z'G< P (ziUg + v2g) + CVT + gr ) a'cos^dAd(£dr. 6). We will see later that such a conservation law does hold for the deep atmosphere version of the equations. Much of this book is taken up with analysing the semi-geostrophic equations. However, some key points are noted at the outset: (i) The only approximations made are to the horizontal momentum.

Only limited results proving that semi-geostrophic solutions are the limit of shallow water solutions have been obtained so far. 1. 5 cannot be used. 23). Thus it is positive in both hemispheres if Q is positive definite. 23) will typically change sign across the equator. 23) the vorticity is approximated, but the depth dependence is not. Since, on scales greater than LR, variations in potential vorticity reflect variations in h rather than in 40 Large-scale atmosphere flow Fig. 3 Potential vorticities using depth field from Fig.

The vorticity is thus approximated by its geostrophic value, but as V • ug = 0, the divergence is entirely ageostrophic. 47) of the shallow water equations. 65) noting that u s • V/i vanishes identically. The equations are again to be solved in a closed region T € M2 with boundary conditions u • n = 0. It is necessary to apply this condition to the geostrophic windand divergent wind separately. The first of these conditions implies that h has to be constant along the boundary. It can then The governing equations 35 be shown that the energy integral I k° G ( u s + *# + 9 h ) d x d y ^2-66) is conserved.